By Amos Safo.

Cocoa, Ghana's second largest export earner and for long the economy's backbone, is in danger. A farmers registration exercise, conducted by the Ghana Cocoa Board between October 1996 and March 1997, has revealed that cocoa production is falling because a sizeable amount of the national plantation is ageing.

This finding was published in a paper entitled The Cocoa Industry and Ghana's Economy Towards the next Millennium which was released recently in Accra.

According to the report only 13% of all cocoa trees are within the peak yielding range of 16 to 23 years. A total of 759,735 acres of cocoa, representing 26% of all cocoa in Ghana was aged 30 years and above. Indications are that a large chunk of the present plantation will soon vanish unless a replacement programme is vigorously pursued.

In a bid to reverse the situation, the Cocobod is to encourage farmers to plant improved cocoa seeds in the old cocoa growing areas of Eastern and Central Regions. In addition, the board will discourage the production of cocoa on shadeless land, and extend fertiliser demonstration farms to all the cocoa growing regions. When and how this will be implemented remains to be seen.

The survey further revealed that the most widely cultivated variety, the Amazon specie, is not the highest yielding variety. The survey also identified the cocoa swollen shoot virus as the most devastating disease attacking crops. The virus has affected an estimated 90m trees that require either cuffing or re-planting. Other diseases that are eating away trees are the black pod disease and capsid which attack and suck the pods empty.

A regional cocoa purchases survey also revealed that the Ashanti Region, which was the largest producer of cocoa in the 1970s and 1980s, has lost its position to less endowed regions. Between 1975/76 and 1984/85 Ashanti produced 31% of the national output of cocoa but by the beginning of the next season, it had conceded its leading producer status to the Western Region which turned out 41% of total national output.

Agricultural economists fear that with the shift in production levels from Ashanti to the Eastern and Western Regions, cocoa yield could slump further since the Western Region soils are not fertile enough to sustain extensive cocoa production.

A few weeks ago, cocoa farmers in the Offinso District appealed to the Ghana Cocobod to help them combat black pod disease which was destroying their crop. The disease, which has been blamed on the unpredictable rainfall pattern, is also devastating farms in Ashanti and the Brong Ahafo Region.

Farmers said 1998 will go down as the worst season they have witnessed in four years. They attributed the problem to the removal of subsidies on insecticide and the subsequent price hike from C3,000 a gallon to C20,000 last year. They fear that if the situation remains as it is now they may not meet their targets for the main season. Earlier this year, the Deputy Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Victor Selormey predicted that the performance of the cocoa sub-sector could boost agricultural output in general; but as matters now stand, this is highly unlikely.

Against this backdrop, the Ghana Cocoa Board has projected that potential export earnings from cocoa could hit $765m between 1999 and 2002. The projection is based on the government's readiness to reduce its export duty, which is currently 30% of the FOB. Ghana Cocobod Deputy Chief Executive, Mr. JEK Amoah explained that the reduction would enable the board to pay remunerative producer prices to farmers to encourage them to expand their farms. He said the anticipated expansion would enable Ghana to take advantage of the decline in production by Brazil and Malaysia.

Amoah noted that the projected increase in cocoa revenue could provide substantial support for the economy in the next millennium. "This will, however, depend on the adoption of yield increasing technologies by cocoa farmers and the reorganisation of the marketing structures to ensure competitive efficiency," he said.

Cocoa remains vital pillar of the country's economy. It occupies about a third of the land under cultivation and employs about 24% of the labour force. It provides about 30% of export earnings and contributes 9% of GDP and 20% of estimated total tax revenue.

In a related development, Ghana's opposition group in parliament has rejected plans by the government to privatise the Producing Buying Company, a subsidiary of the Ghana Cocoa Board. This follows a motion tabled by the Minister of Finance, Kwame Prepah for the divestiture of four state owned enterprises including the Produce Buying Company. Arguing against the deal, opposition spokesman, Yaw Osafo Marfo noted that the divestiture of Produce Buying Company is not feasible since the whole economy hinges on cocoa. The company has a monopoly to export cocoa.