By Dominic Dhliwayo.

Instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), bureaucracy and mining laws that inhibit investment are holding up projects that could reverse a 25 year decline in the base metal production of the 14 member Southern African Development Community (SADC).

In a speech read an his behalf at a Johannesburg metals conference recently, chief executive of base metals for FTSE-100 mining company Billiton, John Raubenheimer, said if these obstacles were removed projects are in place that could boast the region's annual copper output by 895,000 tonnes and its annual zinc production by 282,000 tonnes over the next five years. These projects would increase the region's copper production from its 1995 level of 623,000 tonnes and return it towards its 1975 level of 1.4m tons. It would also add to the 1995 level of 90,000 tonnes of zinc and exceed its 1975 production of 235,000 tonnes.

The potential for a recovery in copper production is heavily dependent on stability in the DRC - which boasts projects as significant as Tenke Corp's Tenke Fungurume and Iscor's Kamoto project - and the successful rehabilitation of Zambia's copper industry. This would include the development of the Konkola Deep deposit by Anglo American.

In addition to boosting copper production, these projects could also make the DRC the world's biggest producer of cobalt. The expansion of SADC's zinc industry appears to be more assured with the biggest projects being in the more stable Namibia (Reunion and Anglo's Skorpion project) and South Africa (Anglo's Gamsberg project). Billiton's plans for a 220,000 tonne zinc smelter in South Africa's Eastern Cape and the possibilities of smelters at the Skorpion and Gamsberg projects could also add value to the zinc by refining it.

Mr Raubenheimer said that for the projects to move forward stability is needed along with mining legislation that encourages investment and a realistic appraisal of the value of state-owned mining assets in any privatisation exercises. With metal prices currently languishing well below their highs, the pressure for the development of new projects has declined. However, many mines around the world are expected to see their resources depleted over the next few years and this could increase demand for base metals and therefore their price.

SADC's potential for power generation, from coal in South Africa and hydroelectricity in the DRC and Mozambique, has made the region an attractive option for future projects. Indeed cheap power has played a major part in the expansion of South Africa's aluminium producing capacity from 50,000 tonnes per year in 1971 to its current level of 600,000 tonnes. Billiton and South Africa's state-owned Industrial Development Corporation, are currently developing the Mozal aluminium smelter in Maputo, Mozambique and the US's Kaiser Aluminium plans another smelter further north at Beira, also based on Mozambique's hydroelectricity potential.

The projects are expected to go at least some way to restoring the region's base metals industry to its mid-1970's status as a key source for these essential industrial raw materials. Since then the DRC's copper production has fallen by over 90% and Zambia's has more than halved.