President Assad of Syria died of a heart attack on 10 June. For three decades the so-called Sphinx of Damascus was a major player in Middle Eastern politics and at the time of his death the region’s longest serving leader. An astute but intransigent politician in the international arena, his power within Syria was absolute. Assad was frequently referred to as a dictator and a tyrant but at a time when Syria needs an experienced navigator to steer it through this period of political and economic turbulence, he will be difficult to replace, writes Pat Lancaster.

Hafez Assad may have been known as the president of Syria, but in all but name he was the country’s undisputed king. And, in the manner of kings, on his death in June, the reins of power passed to his son, Bashar.

In December 1999, The Middle East noted in its cover story, ‘Syria’s Strongman’ that President Assad’s foremost priority appeared to be neither political nor economic; he was engrossed, almost to the exclusion of all else, in ensuring that his 34- year-old son Bashar became unchallenged successor to his ‘throne’.

This year, a political transition has been underway in the Syrian capital, as members of the Old Guard were rigorously purged in favour of a new team. The former prime minister, Muhammad Al Zouabi, allegedly took his own life in May; while former chief of staff Hikmat Shihabi is believed to have fled the country in the wake of allegations of corruption.

Having secured power, Hafez Assad was fiercely determined to keep it, ruthlessly crushing opposition

The ailing president was aware his days were numbered and pushed hard to secure a place for his son as his political heir. While in the process of legitimising these aspirations — the ruling Ba’ath Party was due to meet just nine days after his death to give its official seal of approval to the appointment of Bashar as his father’s deputy — time ran out for President Assad. But, even in death, his power was such that the party moved swiftly to do his work in absentia, lowering the minimum age for a president from 40 to 34, nominating Bashar for the presidency and declaring him commander in chief of the Syrian military, a position previously held by his father.

Born in the village of Qurdaha in south-west Syria in 1930, the son of a small landowner, Hafez Assad was an unlikely candidate for his country’s presidency. With some 70 per cent of Syria’s population Sunni, the young Hafez also had to overcome the difficulties of being an Alawite, a member of a religious group which is an offshoot of Shia’a Islam. In Syria the Alawites were a small, downtrodden sect previously excluded from power. Hafez Assad struggled to overcome the circumstances of his birth through a career in the Syrian armed forces and membership of the Ba’ath Party. Following a successful coup in 1970, he was elected president in 1971.

Having secured power, Hafez Assad was fiercely determined to keep it, ruthlessly crushing opposition. His determination to quash, once and for all, a 1982 insurrection by members of the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama, resulted in the deaths of an estimated 10,000 people and gained him the reputation of a ruthless autocrat.

However, Hafez Assad brought a new stability to the people of Syria, who had suffered under multiple governments for years, with deposed leaders falling like ninepins as one hopeless coup overtook the regime of another. For this, as for his unswerving commitment to the cause of pan-Arabism, even his foes, of whom there are many, have seen fit to commend him. The King of Jordan, the Emir of Kuwait and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia attended his funeral, along with the presidents of Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Sudan and Yemen, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, French President Jacques Chirac, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook.

The pace of economic reform and government decision making remained chronically slow throughout the 1990s

It is regrettable that President Assad felt unable to use his power and influence to put in place a more democratic political system in his homeland. As he pursued selected objectives, including the forming of a strategic alliance with Egypt in order to attack Israel in 1973, intervention in Lebanon in 1976, and the signing of a 20-year co-operation treaty with the Soviet Union in 1980, Syria’s economic development was seriously arrested.

Arms spending, which has accounted for the lion’s share of Syria’s outgoings over the years, has deprived other sectors of much needed development funding. This, combined with President Assad’s obsession with retaining total control — including the strict imposition of censorship in a number of key areas — has left Syria lagging behind its neighbours in vital areas of development. The pace of economic reform and government decision making remained chronically slow throughout the 1990s, prompting criticism from several quarters, including regional funds for economic and social development. Oil and agriculture remain the mainstay of the country’s economy, although even here methods and equipment are outdated and frequently inefficient.

It is into the inexperienced hands of the untried Bashar Assad the burden of hauling Syria into the 21st century will fall. Little is known about the man who will take on his father’s mantle, for it was his brother, Basel, killed in a car accident in 1994, who had originally been groomed for power. At the time, Bashar was studying ophthalmology in London but, at his father’s request he immediately returned to Damascus and began accelerated military training to prepare him for the task ahead.

So far, the indications are good. Educated in Syria and England, Bashar has experienced life in a western democracy first hand. In recent months he launched an anti-corruption drive which resulted in the arrest of more than 30 officials, gaining him the reputation of a man committed to cleaning up dishonesty and corruption at high levels.

An intellectual thinker, Dr Bashar, as the Syrians call him, never courted power but takes the role he has inherited seriously. “I am not seeking high posts but I will not evade my responsibilities,” he told Al Wasat, an Arabic-language magazine published in London. He is largely responsible for the introduction of new technology, including the Internet (albeit at a restricted level) into Syria and shows positive signs of being a reformer. “I am a believer in democracy and the respect of others’ opinions in the broadest possible sense,” he told the Egyptian weekly Al Osbo?. “I am not one of those who keeps power for themselves. I believe in the need to open up to all opinions and listen to all viewpoints, whether I agree or disagree.”

The new president is reported to be a friend of King Abdullah of Jordan and is the fifth new leader to emerge in the region in less than a year and a half, following the accession of the new emirs of Qatar and Bahrain and the new kings of Morocco and Jordan.

Should Bashar’s elevation to power go smoothly, there is every reason to believe he will be instrumental in changing the face of the region both politically and economically. His successful anti-corruption drive has already established him as a forward thinking reformist in a country badly in need of investment and economic reform if it is to tackle the thorny issues of unemployment and a rising population. Fifty per cent of Syria’s 16 million population are under the age of 16, many with little hope of finding regular work in the future.

However, before the process of economic reform can begin, the new president must establish himself and his ministers in power. Most of the major changes of personnel had been made during his father’s lifetime, but there may be the odd tweak here and there before the transition is to his satisfaction.

Despite the outpouring of grief on the streets of Damascus which followed the death of the president, and the immediate support espoused for his chosen successor, Bashar is by no means home and dry just yet.

Members of the Old Guard began surreptitiously questioning his right to office and his capabilities for the job long before his father’s death. Fear of the late president kept these opposers largely in check, but if they should decide to flex their collective muscle at all, it is likely to be now. There is also the threat posed by Rifaat Assad, Bashar’s uncle. When Hafez Assad suffered a heart attack in 1983, his brother Rifaat made a grab for power. Assad exiled him to Europe and last October Syrian troops, reportedly under the command of Bashar, launched a bloody attack on a compound owned by Rifaat, near the Syrian port of Lattakia, in which several people lost their lives.

The incident was intended to be the last in a long line of discordant encounters between President Assad and his younger brother. Rifaat has frequently called for the liberalisation of economy and trade, the introduction of the democracy, an end to Syrian support for Iran in its attempts to gain a foothold in Lebanon and an end to the war with Israel. Such thinking, which had no part in Hafez Assad’s autocracy, endeared Rifaat to many Syrians, especially the young. It would be naive to imagine this support had dissipated entirely. Rifaat, who did not attend his brother’s funeral — Syria’s army and security services were put on full alert to prevent him entering the country — has described his dismissal from his post as vice-president in 1994 in favour of Bashar as “an illegal act” and insists that he, rather than Bashar, should have succeeded to power on the death of his brother.

With the death of Hafez Assad, peace talks with Israel will be put in abeyance. It had been hoped that some sort of agreement would be hammered out before November, when US President Bill Clinton leaves office. This now seems highly unlikely given other pressing business. However, when talks resume, as they inevitably will, it will be interesting to see what skills the new Syrian leader brings to the negotiating table.

The Israelis may hope for more room for manoeuvre with Bashar than they enjoyed with his father, who insisted on the return of every last centimetre of the Golan (lost to Israel in 1969 when he was defence minister) before any deal could be struck. So far though, there is nothing to suggest he will be more flexible in his demands. Speaking to the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, Bashar stated categorically that he would insist on the return of the Golan Heights before any agreement was made with Israel. Diplomatic channels were still open, he noted.

So far, there have been no signs in Beirut of any shift in power

For the moment the issue of Lebanon is a more pressing one. Assad senior lived to see the withdrawal of Israeli troops from South Lebanon in May, after 22 years of occupation, but it will fall to his successor to implement policy in the vacuum that will be left. While his father was still alive, Bashar, in his capacity as minister responsible for Lebanese affairs, said he would be willing to withdraw the 35,000 Syrian troops stationed over the border, if the Lebanese authorities requested such action. So far, though, there have been no signs in Beirut of any shift in power. Immediately, after the death of Hafez Assad, Lebanese prime minister Salim Hoss declared a week of official mourning. He described the Syrian leader’s death as a “catastrophe that hit Lebanon in the heart”. But the official stance was not one universally echoed on the streets of Beirut where Syria’s domination of the country is only grudgingly tolerated.

Syrian troops marched into Lebanon on the outbreak of civil war in 1976 and have remained there ever since. Although the presence of the Syrian army of occupation undoubtedly restricted the expansionist policies of Israel in the country, with the recent pull out of Israeli troops from South Lebanon, many Lebanese feel it is high time the Syrians followed their lead.

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