By Alan George.

A series of major Algerian arms deals with Russia, Belarus and South Africa could further destabilise northwest Africa, an area already beset by the unresolved Lockerbie and Western Sahara conflicts and by Algeria's bloody internal conflict with militant Islamist groups.

The reasons for the arms-buying spree could be mundane. Algeria may simply be upgrading its ageing arsenal. But Western officials note that Morocco, although presently at peace with Algeria, might be one factor in Algeria's calculations.

The latest in a series of arms deals was for the supply of 98 Russian Kh-35 anti-ship missiles, designated "Switchblade" in NATO terminology. The radar-guided missiles, produced by the Zvezda-Strela complex near Moscow, have a range of over 130 kilometres. They will be fired from so-called "Uran" batteries which will be installed on six missile boats. Delivery will start soon.

Earlier, Algiers concluded a deal with Beltekhexport, the state arms sales agency of Belarus, for the supply of 36 MiG-29 aircraft, mothballed at the Bereza military base. These aircraft will be delivered after refurbishment. Algeria will reportedly pay by transferring to Belarus 120 ageing MiG-21 fighters.

Algeria also plans to replace part of its Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopter fleet and wants to upgrade its entire helicopter fleet by the end of next year. Talks are thought to be under way with Russia's Mil and Kazan helicopter plants.

Hopes of acquiring aircraft from France had earlier been blocked by Lionel Jospin's government. Paris refused an export licence for 12 Ecureuil helicopters with night vision equipment. This prompted Algiers to turn to South Africa, where a $20 million order for remotely piloted aircraft (RPVs) was placed. Talks have also been held about the possible supply of South African Rooivalk helicopters.

Algeria's arms deals may be intended merely to replace obsolete stocks. Or they may be a way of appeasing the armed forces, which are the dominant political power. But Western officials and independent analysts note that there is also the possibility, albeit distant, that Algeria might be moving to beef up its forces with neighbouring Morocco in mind.

The two countries fought a brief border war in 1963 over Moroccan claims to parts of Algeria's territory. The claims were later dropped but the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, occupied by Morocco in 1975, is a potential flashpoint. Algeria has given political and military support to the Polisario Front which fought a long guerrilla war for the territory's independence. The UN has been trying to implement a peace plan involving a referendum to allow the residents of the disputed territory to decide their future.

Morocco, however, has sent thousands of its nationals to live in the area and the peace process has become bogged down in disputes over who should be entitled to vote.

It is widely agreed that Morocco will agree a referendum only if and when it is certain that the result will go its way. This was underlined in November when UN Secretary General Kofi Annan visited Polisario's Algerian base in the southern town of Tindouf an effort to break the logjam. The Polisario apparently approved his proposals but Morocco raised objections.

An eventual resumption of hostilities, into which Algeria could be drawn, cannot be ruled out entirely.

Commenting on the thinking behind the arms deals, George Joffe, deputy director of the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London, said that there may be "a determination to satisfy the army's ambitions for the latest gadgetry". But, he noted: "Algeria's traditional enemy is Morocco."