As Nigeria gets through its preliminary elections, minds are concentrating on the supreme contest - the presidential election, set for 27 February. Two candidates are already streets ahead of their rivals - Olusegun Obasanjo and Dr Alex Ekwueme. Pini Jason explains why.

The voter turnout for Nigeria's local government elections and the state assembly and governors' elections which followed were larger than any election conducted under the discredited Abacha regime. Nigerians showed that they were eager to return to make a new start under civilian rule.

The elections showed that Nigerians cherish democracy and want the military out of their lives. They also gave a vote of confidence in Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar's transition programme which is on schedule and now well underway. The Senate and House of Representative elections are due on 20 February.

In the early elections Nigerians finally gave Abacha the boot. Abacha's All Peoples Party (APP) came a distant second in the local elections, with only 25% of the vote. The APP, derisively called the "Abacha Peoples Party", because its ranks were stuffed with former Abacha supporters, was given the brush off by Nigerian voters.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the only truly national party. It won about 60% of the national vote, winning 459 local government chairmanship seats and 4,650 council seats. It beat its rivals in 37 states including Abuja and only failed in the Yoruba southwest which was won by the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

The AD, which some have dismissed as a reincarnation of Obafemi Awolowo's old Action Group, swept the southwest but only came third nationally with about 15% of the vote.

Under the rules of the Independent National Electoral Commission only the PDP, APP and AD qualified for final registration. The other six parties did not get 5% of the vote in all 24 states and were subsequently de-registered.

So who will win the presidential elections on 27 February? Outsiders might assume that the automatic choice will be Gen Olusegun Obasanjo, the leader of the all-victorious PDP. He was Nigeria's head of state from February 1976 to October 1979. He has also earned international accolades for keeping his promises and handing over power to a civilian regime in 1979. He was one of the Commonwealth's Eminent Persons Group that pressurised South Africa at the end of apartheid. He is also something of a martyr, having been jailed by Abacha on unproven allegations of organising a coup only to be released by Gen Abubakar after he assumed power. Obasanjo is seen as the only southerner acceptable to the military and the conservative north.

But despite his high international profile, Obasanjo is resented, disliked and vehemently opposed by his own people. In the recent elections, he was thrashed in his home base of Abeokuta by the Alliance for Democracy. The Yorubas do not see him as one who will work for their interests because he says that he is a national and not a tribal leader.

He is accused of denying Awolowo a deserved victory in the 1979 presidential elections. His critics say that he worked against Chief Moshood Abiola before his election victory in 1993.

Nigerians are also uncomfortable at the prospect of a retired general taking over from another soldier after a prolonged period of military rule. Critics say that the military is supporting Obasanjo so that they can still influence the political system even under civilian rule.

Those promoting Obasanjo's candidacy are retired generals. Notable among them is Maj Gen Aliyu Mohammed, now retired, who was Gen Ibrahim Babangida's national security adviser. Mohamed and Babangida are reported to have pledged billions of naira to Obasanjo's campaign. Obasanjo caused an uproar when he donated N220m and 200 cars to the PDP. Where did he get the money?

Another formidable contender, also from the PDP is Dr Alex Ekwueme, a lawyer and former Vice President. Dr Ekwueme, from a family of intellectuals, has multiple degrees in architecture and law. He is rich, urbane and self-effacing with a great mind for detail.

Ekwueme's political profile has risen in recent times. During the crisis arising from the annulment of the Abiola election in 1993, he chaired the All Politicians Summit which Abacha's security men tried to disrupt. Ekwueme stuck to his guns and brought the meeting to a successful close.

During the 1995 constitutional conference, he again played a prominent role. When some sections of the country threatened to secede, Ekwueme came up with a minority report that suggested the rotation of the presidency among the six geo-political zones in the country. This implied a "power shift" from north to south that has now been largely accepted as a way forward.

Ekwueme's courage was again demonstrated when he organised the group of 34 eminent Nigerians, as the G-34 group, which gave nine unassailable legal reasons why Gen Abacha should not be allowed to "succeed himself" as a civilian president. After Abacha's death, Ekwueme converted G-34 into the PDP.

Unlike Obasanjo, who does not have the support of his own kinsmen, all nine eastern states where Ekwueme comes from, gave him a vote of confidence.